We read the same numbers differently: almost none of these leads are safe. In most of the races that will decide the majority, the gap between the candidates is smaller than the poll’s own margin of error. Statistically, that means the race is tied. A 63% chance is roughly the odds of losing a coin flip twice in a row, and nobody should bet a Senate majority on that.

The math hasn’t changed

Republicans hold 53 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four to retake control, while also holding every seat they already have, including open seats in Michigan and Georgia’s Jon Ossoff.

The Cook Political Report currently rates seven Senate races as Toss-Ups, six of them Republican-held: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, plus the Democratic-held open seat in Michigan. After its October 14 update, Sabato's Crystal Ball has five Toss Ups, all in Republican-held seats. Both outlets see a path to a Democratic majority. Neither sees a guarantee.

Here is where key Senate races stand today:

Alaska: Mary Peltola
Cook: Toss Up | Sabato: Leans Democratic

Alaska has become one of the cycle’s biggest surprises. Sabato moved the race to Leans Democratic in early October, and a New York Times/Siena poll had Peltola up seven. But the closer you look, the tighter it gets. Alaska Survey Research shows Peltola ahead just 51% to 49% after ranked-choice tabulation, a statistical tie, and a fresh InsiderAdvantage poll has her leading 48% to 43% in the first round. Thursday night’s debate was heated, with Sen. Dan Sullivan going after Peltola’s character. Alaska is famously hard to poll, and Republicans have spent tens of millions here. A lead in October is not a win in November.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff
Cook: Likely Democratic

Ossoff is the strongest incumbent on the board. Trafalgar has him ahead of Rep. Mike Collins 51% to 43%, and the RealClearPolitics average sits at about Ossoff +8. The risk in Georgia is the 50% threshold. If no candidate clears it, the race goes to a December 1 runoff, and Democrats would spend another month and millions of dollars defending a seat that should be settled on Election Night.

Maine: Troy Jackson
Cook: Toss Up

Maine is the definition of a margin-of-error race. Jackson leads in most recent polls, but by a hair: Suffolk University has him up 49% to 47%, InsiderAdvantage shows the same 2-point gap, and the RealClearPolitics average gives him a lead of about 1.6 points. Suffolk’s margin of error is 4.4 points, more than double his lead. Meanwhile, a September New York Times/Siena poll had Collins ahead by three. The two candidates held their fourth and final debate Thursday, and absentee voting is already underway. Susan Collins has outrun her polls before. Nobody in Maine should assume she won’t do it again.

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed
Cook: Toss Up | Sabato: Leans Democratic

Michigan is a seat Democrats have to hold, and it is not locked down. Rasmussen’s October 12–14 poll shows El-Sayed ahead of Mike Rogers 46% to 44%. Earlier polls ranged from a 1-point lead in YouGov to a 7-point lead in Marist, with the RealClearPolitics average at about El-Sayed +3. One Mitchell Research finding should worry every organizer: El-Sayed dominates among people who’ve already returned absentee ballots, but Rogers narrowly leads among voters who plan to show up between now and Election Day. Turnout from here forward decides this one.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper
Cook: Likely Democratic

Cook moved North Carolina from Leans to Likely Democratic on October 6, and Cooper has led Michael Whatley all year. The latest East Carolina University poll puts him up 50% to 43%. It’s the most comfortable pickup opportunity, but North Carolina has a long history of statewide races tightening in the final weeks as partisan voters come home. Cooper’s lead is real. It’s also the kind of lead that can shrink fast if Democrats treat the state as finished.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown
Cook: Toss Up

Ohio may be the most encouraging story on the map, and it’s still a Toss Up. A new Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll shows Brown ahead of Sen. Jon Husted 48% to 42%, in a state Trump won by about 11 points. CNN and Marist show similar leads. But a co/efficient poll from earlier this month had Husted up by one, and Brown has been hovering just under 50% in most surveys. In a state with such a strong Republican lean, the final few points are always the hardest.

Texas: James Talarico
Cook: Toss Up

Texas shows exactly why no one should get comfortable. Talarico has led most of the fall, and new polls this week from Marist (47% to 45%) and the University of Texas (50% to 47%) keep him narrowly ahead. But InsiderAdvantage now has Ken Paxton up 49% to 48%, the first Paxton lead in a while. Every one of those results is inside the margin of error. Democrats haven’t won a Senate race in Texas since 1988, and undecided voters in Texas have historically broken Republican.

What it all adds up to

Line up these races and a clear picture emerges. In Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas, the leading candidate is ahead by less than the margin of error in at least one recent poll. In Alaska, the most reliable local pollster shows a two-point race. Georgia and North Carolina look better, but both carry their own risks.

That is a map Democrats can win. It is also a map Democrats can lose by a few thousand votes in two or three states. The difference will come down to whether younger, less-frequent voters, who favor Democratic candidates by wide margins in nearly every one of these polls, actually turn out.

• University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%

• ReconMR/Siena: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%

• Marist: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%

• Fox News: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%

The governor’s race is closer, and that is news in itself! For the first time in Greg Abbott’s career, RealClearPolitics rates his race a toss-up. Gina Hinojosa leads 49-48 in the UT poll and 48-47 in YouGov’s. Abbott is three terms in, and he’s fighting for every point.

Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Right now, that streak is in real danger.

What’s Holding

• Paxton’s baggage. His favorability sits at 40% favorable, 55% unfavorable. Fox News has him 18 points underwater, while Talarico is 8 points above water.

• Abbott’s record. His job approval is underwater too, 48-51% in ReconMR’s poll.

• Locked-in voters. In the UT poll, 91% of Talarico supporters say they’re unlikely to change their minds. For Paxton, the figure is 84%.

• The kitchen table. Seven in ten likely voters say cost of living matters to their Senate vote. Among Texans who say they’re falling behind, Talarico leads by 32 points.

The good news also extends down the ballot. For the first time, Texas Democrats are polling slightly ahead in several down-ballot statewide races.

The Catch

Republicans see the same numbers we do, and they’re spending to change them.

A pro-Paxton super PAC spent $131 million in just 17 days last month. Donald Trump flew to San Antonio last week to rally for him. The margins have tightened. Talarico’s lead slipped from 6 points to 4 in one poll, and from 6 to 2 in another.

There’s also a belief gap. More Texans say they’re voting for Talarico than for Paxton. Yet a plurality now expect Paxton to win anyway. On the governor’s race, 62% expect Abbott to win, even though the race is tied.

Hinojosa’s strongest supporters are younger and Hispanic voters. Those are the voters most likely to skip a midterm.

That is the whole race in one fact. Texans are ready to vote for change. Many of them aren’t yet convinced their vote will matter. Pundits have made it clear: the race comes down to “turnout, turnout, turnout.”

We’re All In on Texas

Early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Election Day is November 3.

Talarico is leading. Hinojosa is in a dead heat. Independents are with us. Paxton and his allies are throwing everything they have at closing the gap.

The next three weeks decide whether Texas’s best shot in a generation becomes a win, and we’re all in on making sure it does!

Here’s the math: Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats need to flip four seats while also defending every seat they hold, including Georgia. Let’s go state by state for the closest races...

Alaska: Mary Peltola

Alaska may be the cycle's most remarkable story! A new Alaska Survey Research poll shows Peltola leading Sullivan 51% to 49% after the final round of ranked-choice voting. That lead has narrowed slightly from a 3.8-point edge in the same firm’s survey about four weeks earlier, and with a 3-point margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. Other polling backs that up: a Quantus Insights poll found the two candidates tied at 46%.

Still, the forecasters are noticing. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the race to Leans Democratic, the first time in 18 years it has given a Democrat a favorable rating in an Alaska Senate race. Voting starts in less than two weeks.

Georgia: Jon Ossoff

Ossoff is in the strongest position of anyone on our slate. The latest Trafalgar Group poll has him ahead of Rep. Mike Collins 51% to 43% among likely voters, a modest improvement over the firm’s September poll, which showed a six-point lead. The RealClearPolitics average has Ossoff up 8.1 points. One thing to keep in mind about Georgia: if no candidate clears 50%, a runoff is set for December 1. Every vote that pushes Ossoff over that line in November saves us a month of expensive overtime.

Maine: Troy Jackson

Troy Jackson stepped in as our nominee in July, and he’s made this a genuine race against a five-term incumbent. A Washington Post-Schar School poll of 800 likely voters, taken Sept. 30 to Oct. 5, found Jackson at 50% and Collins at 46%, a lead within the range of sampling error. His crossover appeal was also stronger, drawing 9% of Republicans compared with Collins pulling 6% of Democrats.

It’s not a lock. A New York Times/Siena poll had Collins ahead 49% to 46%, and an AARP survey found Collins winning 70% of older swing voters, even as Jackson leads by 25 points among voters under 50. That age split is exactly why youth turnout matters so much in Maine. Democrats haven’t won a Senate election there since 1988.

Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed

Michigan is an open seat we have to hold, and El-Sayed is ahead but not comfortably. The RealClearPolitics average has him up 3.1 points over Mike Rogers, with recent polls ranging from a 1-point lead in YouGov to a 7-point lead in Marist. A Mitchell Research poll conducted Oct. 1 put El-Sayed at 45.6% and Rogers at 41.4%.

The early-vote numbers are encouraging: in that Mitchell poll, El-Sayed leads absentee voters 66% to 21%, while Rogers narrowly leads among people who plan to vote between now and Election Day, 47% to 45%. That second number is the warning sign. Voters 18 to 29 prefer El-Sayed 45% to 17%, so if young Michiganders show up, this seat stays blue.

North Carolina: Roy Cooper

Cooper has led this race since the start. The latest East Carolina University poll has him ahead of Michael Whatley 50% to 43%, and a Big Data Poll survey shows a 12-point lead. Catawba College found independents, the state’s largest voting bloc, breaking for Cooper 48% to 28%.

But history says to stay alert: pundits remind us that North Carolina statewide races typically tighten at this point in the campaign as partisan bases consolidate.

Ohio: Sherrod Brown

Sherrod Brown’s comeback bid is holding steady. The RealClearPolitics average shows Brown up 3.1 points over appointed Sen. Jon Husted, with recent polls including a 6-point lead from CNN and an 8-point lead from Marist, though a co/efficient poll had Husted ahead by 1. In the Suffolk/USA Today poll, independents favored Brown 58% to 33%.

Local issues are breaking our way too. A sharp backlash against data centers appears to be hurting Ohio Republicans, and an NRSC memo in August described how that backlash imperiled Husted’s chances. The caution here: Brown sits around 48 percent, so he needs every last vote to get over the top.

Texas: James Talarico

And then there’s Texas. The RealClearPolitics average has Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 48.2% to 45.2%, with a recent YouGov poll showing a 6-point lead. The most recent Trafalgar Group poll puts Talarico at 47% to 44%.

The stakes are historic. The last time a Democrat won a Senate race in Texas was 1988, the year before Talarico was born. The generational divide is stark: Emerson found voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, while voters over 50 favor Paxton by 11.

What it all means

Across these seven races, the pattern is unmistakable. Our candidates lead or tie in nearly every one, and in almost all of them, the gap between winning and losing comes down to whether younger, less-frequent voters actually cast a ballot. Older voters lean Republican and turn out reliably. Younger voters lean our way by wide margins, but we need to reach them, remind them, and mobilize them.

That is the work Forward Blue exists to do, and it’s where every dollar we raise goes in these final weeks: making sure the people who will decide these races know when, where, and how to vote.

Thank you for standing with us. Let’s finish this together!

– Forward Blue

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. It feels far away. It isn’t, and for many Americans, the deadline to register to vote is just days away.

Next Monday, October 5th, is the last day to register to vote in Texas, Georgia, Florida, Arizona, and Ohio. Five states with enormous stakes.

So we put together a quick checklist to ensure that everyone is ready to vote come Election Day:

1. Check your registration. Even if you’re sure!

This takes about two minutes, and it is the step people skip most.

You registered years ago? Great. Check anyway. Registrations get outdated when you move, change your name, or skip a few elections. In Georgia, for example, the law requires you to be registered at your current home address. So if you moved across town since 2024, you may need to update.

Verify your voter registration now by following this link; it only takes 2 minutes! If something looks wrong, fix it today.

2. Know your deadline!

Every state sets its own. Some close on Sunday. Some let you register on Election Day itself. Here are a few that close next week:

Sunday, October 4th – AK, RI, SC

Monday, October 5th – AZ, AR, FL, GA, IN, KY, LA, MS, MT, OH, TN, TX

Tuesday, October 6th – IL, NV, NM

Wednesday, October 7th – MO

Friday, October 9th – NC, OK

Not in this list? Find your state’s deadline here.

3. Decide how you’ll vote. Then put it on your calendar.

Early, by mail, or on Election Day. Pick one now. A plan beats good intentions every time.

Early voting starts sooner than you think. In many states, voting will get underway in the next couple of weeks.

So pick a day. Pick a time. And stick to it.

4. Voting by mail? Don’t wait for the last week.

Here’s something most voters haven’t heard: the Postal Service changed how it defines a postmark. Under a rule that took effect last December, mail is postmarked the day it is processed, not the day you drop it off. That can be days later.

Why it matters: In June, the Supreme Court ruled in Watson v. RNC that states may count mail ballots that arrive after Election Day if they are postmarked by Election Day. Good news. But if your ballot sits in a bin and gets stamped November 4, it may not count.

So protect it:

• Mail it at least a week early. That’s what USPS itself recommends.

• Cutting it close? Walk it to a post office counter and ask for a hand-stamped postmark.

• Return it at a secure location. Use an official drop box or return it to your local election office, if your state allows it.

5. Bring three people with you

You just did the hard part. Now multiply it.

Think of three people. The cousin who just moved. The neighbor who turned 18 this year. The coworker who always says they’ll figure it out later.

Text them this post. Ask one question: Are you registered at your current address? That single text could be the difference between a vote cast and a vote lost to a deadline!

Thank you for being here.

Forward Blue

And the president isn’t promising relief anytime soon. Earlier this month, he predicted Iran would keep fighting until after the midterms and conceded that gas prices likely won’t come down before then.

The Sudden Conversion

This week, the pump finally caught up with Republicans in the races that will decide the Senate. Iowa Senate nominee Ashley Hinson broke with the White House first, Michigan’s Mike Rogers followed within hours, and Ohio Sen. Jon Husted joined them the next day.

Hinson said Iowa families are paying for the war every time they fill up or check out at the grocery store, and called for it to end immediately. Rogers filmed an ad in a grocery store calling for a quick end to the war and a temporary embargo on U.S. diesel exports. Husted told Politico the war should end as soon as possible so gas prices can fall.

It’s a convenient change of heart, and it arrives nearly seven months into a war that Trump originally predicted would last four or five weeks.

The Record

Hinson has voted six times against House resolutions directing the president to halt the war, most recently on September 15. She understood the politics months ago: in June, she acknowledged to a voter that the war could become a “political liability” if it wasn’t wrapped up within a couple of weeks, according to a recording obtained by CBS News. Then she kept voting the same way.

Husted has opposed every war powers resolution that has come to a vote in the Senate. In the very same Politico story, his spokesperson said he won’t support the Democratic war powers resolution now headed to the Senate floor.

Voters Got There First

These candidates are catching up to the public. Only about a quarter of Americans say the war has been worth it, and 71% of voters say the president has no clear strategy to end it. In CNN’s mid-September poll, Trump’s approval sat at 33%, with 73% disapproving of his handling of the war. And nearly half of voters told Reuters/Ipsos that the cost of living will be the single biggest factor in their vote.

That’s why the pivot is happening now. A position discovered 40 days before an election can be dropped just as fast once the votes are counted.

Where the Senate Comes In

The House has now voted three times to end the war, most recently passing a resolution 220-204 on September 15 with seven Republicans joining Democrats. The Senate is where those efforts stall. In June, the Senate narrowly adopted a largely symbolic resolution, and the very next day Republicans blocked Tim Kaine’s measure to restrict the president’s war powers.

Control of the Senate decides which bills reach the floor, which officials testify under oath, and what the next funding bill pays for. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the majority. Ohio and Iowa are Republican seats in play, and Michigan is a Democratic seat the party has to hold. In Ohio, recent polling has Sherrod Brown slightly ahead of Husted. In Iowa, Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek, a race forecasters moved to toss-up on September 22, the same day they shifted Michigan toward Democrats. In Michigan, where gas is averaging $4.84 a gallon, a Michigan State University poll has Abdul El-Sayed leading Rogers 48% to 44%.

On November 3rd, voters will decide which counts for more: what these candidates did, or what they’re saying now.

What Changed?

Independent voters are driving this shift in striking numbers. Independents now support Hinojosa by 38 points (65-27%), up from 13 points in July. They also favor Talarico by 40 points (64-24%), up from 23 points in July. Abbott’s favorability has turned negative, with 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable. Paxton is also struggling, with 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Hinojosa’s favorability has risen to 48-27%, and Talarico’s to 50-39%, with fewer undecided voters than before.

Texans are expressing clear opinions on character. Majorities view Hinojosa as honest and authentic, while most do not see Abbott the same way. Voters trust Hinojosa more on issues like affordability and water, which directly impact their daily lives. Paxton’s support is faltering, with nearly all Democrats backing Talarico, but only about 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton, indicating a significant defection rate for a statewide GOP nominee in Texas.

The Catch

Here’s the crucial part: most Texas voters still believe Abbott and Paxton will win. This gap between “who I’m voting for” and “who I think will actually win” is where campaigns can falter. It highlights the importance of turnout, where a four-point lead and a six-point lead are significant but not secure. These leads must be solidified through grassroots efforts in the final weeks.

We’re All In on Texas

This is not the time to overlook a race we were once told to ignore. Talarico is leading. Hinojosa is leading. Independents are increasingly supporting both. The outcome depends on voter turnout before Election Day, not just favorable polls in September.

The real question is: what do we do about it?

It’s time we take government reform seriously. It may not sound sexy, but we can’t make progress on healthcare, climate change, housing affordability, or anything else until we make government responsive to people’s needs.

So what does real reform look like? It starts with getting big money out of politics. That means overturning Citizens United and ending the loophole that lets corporate interests spend hundreds of millions of dollars to elect their preferred candidate.

It means ending gerrymandering for good. Independent redistricting commissions have already worked in states like California, Michigan, and Colorado, taking the map-drawing pen away from the very politicians who benefit from the lines they draw. There’s no reason this can’t be the norm everywhere, not the exception.

We also need to look hard at how we vote. Ranked-choice voting, open primaries, automatic voter registration, and making Election Day a holiday are not radical ideas; they’re common-sense reforms that make it easier for people to participate in the political process. When only a small, hyper-partisan sliver of the electorate turns out for primaries, we shouldn’t be surprised that our choices in November feel so limited.

None of this is a silver bullet. Fixing our political system won’t happen overnight, and it won’t happen through one bill or one election cycle. It will take sustained pressure from voters who understand that this isn’t a side issue; it’s the foundational issue that determines whether we can make progress on everything else we care about.

The good news is that the appetite for change is there. A vast majority of Americans, across party lines, agree that money in politics is a problem and that gerrymandering is unfair. The question isn’t whether people want reform; it’s whether we can build the political will to demand it and the coalitions to deliver it. That work starts now, one conversation, one campaign, and one election at a time.

Here’s where you come in: we are backing the fight to get big money out of politics and end gerrymandering for good, but none of it happens without people willing to chip in $5, $15, or $25 now to build the Senate majority needed to make it happen. Whatever you can give helps us keep building the coalition that will make government answer to people again.

Chip in to win!

A whistleblower inside the U.S. Postal Service says the agency has been rushing to build a new system to carry out Trump’s executive order targeting mail voting. According to the disclosure, the rollout has been poorly tested, and a single scanning error could potentially hold up an entire batch containing thousands of ballot envelopes. That may sound like a narrow technical problem, but it points to something much larger about how voting rights fights are changing.

The most effective forms of voter suppression do not always look dramatic anymore: they can happen through administrative systems that most voters never see and would have little reason to understand until something goes wrong, from a barcode failing to scan, a poor database sync, or even a vote-by-mail request being sorted into the wrong pile. None of these problems comes with a headline announcing that someone has been denied the right to vote, but the practical result can be the same if the issue is not fixed before the deadline.

Roughly one-third of voters cast ballots by mail in 2024, and for most of them the process was simple enough that the machinery behind it was almost invisible. They requested a ballot, received it, filled it out and sent it back. Behind that routine transaction, however, is a complicated chain of election offices, postal facilities, scanning systems, databases and deadlines that all have to work correctly.

The Trump administration says its changes are intended to strengthen election security and verify voter eligibility. Democratic-led states and voting rights groups are challenging parts of the effort in court, arguing that the federal government is interfering with state-run election systems and creating new risks for voters who rely on the mail. The legal questions matter, but so does the operational reality. Even a rule that is eventually struck down can cause confusion if election administrators and postal workers spend weeks preparing for it. If Trump can’t get through his attacks, he knows that the confusion and chaos will result regardless.

The fight over the midterms has already started. For millions of voters, the first sign of it may be whether an envelope arrives when it is supposed to.

Please take a moment now to check your voter registration, even if you’ve voted for decades. In states like Texas, millions have been moved to a “suspense” status, requiring updates before the election.

According to conventional wisdom, our clearest path would be to flip North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio while making sure we defend Democratic held toss up seats in Georgia and Michigan. However, we’re also monitoring races in Texas and Iowa where strong Democratic candidates have given us a shot at flipping these reliably Republican seats.

Democrats have what is probably their easiest pickup opportunity in the tar heel state, where popular former Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley by double digits in most polls. Whatley, the former RNC chair and close confidant to Donald Trump, has never held political office, and his proximity to Trump likely hurts more than it helps in such a competitive state. As of right now, Cooper has outraised Whatley three to one, but the outside money being spent in Whatley’s favor could easily erase that lead. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has already announced plans to spend $71 million in North Carolina.

The state of play in Maine has changed drastically in the past month, with Democratic nominee Graham Platner dropping out of the race in July after he was accused of sexual assault. Democrats have now replaced Platner with logger and former Maine state Senate president Troy Jackson. Democrats have sought to oust Susan Collins and flip this seat for years, and this could be their best shot. The state has been reliably trending blue, and Kamala Harris won the state in 2024, but Collins has shown to be a formidable incumbent that we cannot take for granted.

In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is running to unseat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola has a history of being able to flip red seats, and since Alaska’s House seat is at-large, she’s had experience winning statewide. A new poll from earlier this month shows Peltola leading Sullivan 51% to his 49%. While this may be a statistical tie, it’s important to remember that Trump won this state by 13 points in 2024, meaning Peltola is winning over a sizable portion of Trump voters, which will be essential to her victory.

Ohio has trended red over the last few election cycles, but former Senator Sherrod Brown is giving Democrats their best chance at flipping the seat. Brown is up against Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill J.D. Vance’s seat after he became Vice President. Brown certainly benefits from strong name ID, support from labor unions, and a massive war chest, and a recent Fox News poll shows Brown leading Husted by eight points. Husted is still a rather unknown figure, which could both help or hurt our chances. Democrats must effectively define Husted as a Trump lackey who wants data centers in working-class communities and is supporting another endless war that is driving costs through the roof.

Along with flipping these four seats, we must defend two Democratic held seats in Georgia and Michigan. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has maintained a lead in polling and a massive cash advantage over his Republican opponent Mike Collins. Georgia is the only state where Trump won with a Democratic Senator up for reelection, so Republicans are setting their sights on the Peach State as one of their prime pickup opportunities. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed just prevailed in the Democratic primary despite being heavily outspent by establishment pick Haley Stevens. El-Sayed’s fiercely progressive message resonated with a coalition of younger and college-educated voters, but if he wants to win the general, he needs to boost his standing among older black voters who voted overwhelmingly for Haley Stevens in the primary.

Finally, we have our wildcards, Texas and Iowa. These two states have been reliably Republican for over a decade, but with Trump’s approval at an all-time low, strong Democratic candidates have given us a chance to flip them. In Texas, James Talarico, a former teacher, pastor, and state representative, is facing off against MAGA darling Ken Paxton in what has become a closely watched race. Talarico will need to boost turnout among younger voters and win over Hispanic voters who have trended to the right over the past few election cycles.

Talarico recently unveiled his “New American Dream” plan, including a minimum wage increase and taxing the 1% to deliver wins to working-class families. You can hear more about his vision here:

In Iowa, a state widely affected by Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran, which have raised fertilizer and fuel prices, polling shows Josh Turek neck and neck with Republican Ashley Hinson.

Now here’s where you come in. If you have time between now and Election Day, consider hopping on the phone to make get-out-the-vote calls and make sure every last Democrat has a plan to vote. Every vote matters, and turnout is what will determine every one of these races, so it’s time to organize like hell to get the job done.

So what is Donald Trump’s number one legislative priority right now?

Making it harder for you to vote.

The SAVE America Act is headed to the Senate floor this week. The bill would force every American to produce a passport or a certified birth certificate just to register to vote. It would impose a national photo ID requirement stricter than almost every state voter ID law on the books. It would ban student IDs. It would restrict tribal IDs. And it would require every state to hand over its voter rolls to the Department of Homeland Security.

More than 21 million U.S. citizens don’t have ready access to the documents this bill demands. Not because they’re not citizens. Because they’re working people who don’t have a passport sitting in a drawer. Because they moved and haven’t updated their birth certificate. Or, like many, perhaps they got married and changed their name.

This bill does not solve a real problem. Noncitizen voting is already illegal. It is vanishingly rare. The Trump administration’s own data confirms it. Every state already requires voters to verify their citizenship. The SAVE Act stacks a new barrier on top of a system that already works, and the people who get crushed are the ones with the least time and money to jump through bureaucratic hoops.

If you want some more context on the SAVE Act, PBS NewsHour has a good segment here:

Who gets hurt? Military families who move constantly. Married women who changed their names. Elderly voters without current documents. Young voters registering for the first time. Communities of color are three times more likely than white citizens to lack the required paperwork.

If you’re thinking “this sounds like a poll tax with extra steps,” congratulations... you’re paying attention!

🏠 At the Intersection of “Not His Problem.”

Housing. The issue voters across every demographic, every state, every political persuasion rank at or near the top of their list. The issue where 84% of Gen Z say they’re delaying marriage, kids, or career moves because they can’t afford to buy a home.

And guess what? The Senate just passed a sweeping, bipartisan housing bill, 89 to 10. (YAY!) The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act would be the biggest federal housing package in decades. It tackles Wall Street investors buying up single-family homes. It cuts red tape for new construction. It expands programs that help people actually afford a place to live.

Trump’s response? He told House Speaker Mike Johnson to stop worrying about the housing bill and focus on passing the SAVE Act. He said out loud, at the House Republican retreat: “They don’t talk about housing. They don’t talk about anything. That’s all they talk about.” (”That” being the SAVE Act.)

He has vowed not to sign any legislation until the SAVE Act passes. Not housing. Not anything.

If it were about election integrity, they’d fund the election infrastructure that’s already crumbling. They’d invest in the poll workers who are quitting because of threats. They’d enforce the laws already on the books.

They want to shrink the electorate. And they want to do it eight months before a midterm where their war is unpopular, their president’s approval is underwater, and every kitchen table in America has a higher gas bill sitting on it.

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🧱 The Filibuster Question

The SAVE Act needs 60 votes to pass the Senate. Democrats are unified in opposition. Schumer called it one of the most despicable bills he’s seen in his career.

Republicans have 53 seats. Even Trump’s relentless pressure campaign hasn’t moved the math. Several Republican senators, including Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, oppose the bill or oppose changing filibuster rules to ram it through. Senate Majority Leader Thune has admitted the votes aren’t there. He’s bringing it to the floor anyway, to, in his words, “put Democrats on the record.”

Fine. Put us on the record. Democrats should want to be on the record opposing a bill that would strip 21 million Americans of their ability to register to vote. That’s not a hard vote. That’s a gift.

But “putting Democrats on the record” is also a setup. If the bill fails this week, Trump and the MAGA media machine will spend the next eight months screaming that Democrats blocked election security. They’ll say Democrats want noncitizens to vote. They’ll scream it on Fox. They’ll ALL CAPS it on Truth Social. They’ll echo it at every rally between now and November.

Democrats need to be ready with a response that doesn’t require a flowchart. Something like: “We killed a bill that would have stopped 21 million Americans from voting, and we’d do it again.”

📌 What You Can Do

Call your senators today. Both of them. Even if they’re Democrats.

The number for the U.S. Capitol Switchboard is (202) 224-3121. They’ll connect you.

Here is a script from 5Calls to reference:

I’m calling to urge Senator [Name] to oppose the House-passed SAVE America Act, which would create unnecessary barriers to voter registration and disenfranchise countless voters, especially women, seniors, and low-income citizens. The bill is designed to block voters despite no evidence of widespread fraud.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

IF LEAVING VOICEMAIL: Please leave your full street address to ensure your call is tallied.

If you’re in a state with a Republican senator or someone like Sen. John Fetterman, your call matters even more. Collins (ME), Murkowski (AK), McConnell (KY), and Tillis (NC) have all expressed reservations. They need to hear from constituents, not just from Trump’s Truth Social feed.

The president is waging a war that’s costing you $10 more a week at the pump. He’s refusing to sign a housing bill that 89 senators agreed on. And his top priority is a bill that would make it harder for 21 million citizens to vote.

He’s not trying to save America. He’s trying to save his majority.

Don’t let him.

🍎 Zohran Mamdani

Zohran Mamdani (D) is standing tall with a double-digit lead over disgraced governor Andrew Cuomo! He recently spent a few minutes with Anderson Cooper on CNN. You can watch his interview here:

📊 Deadheats in Virginia + New Jersey

In Virginia, Rep. Abigail Spanberger is running neck-and-neck against a Trump-endorsed extremist who wants to defund public schools and ban abortion.

In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill is fighting tooth and nail to fend off a MAGA wave fueled by dark money and billionaire-funded PACs. Early vote returns show GOP voters turning out at higher-than-expected levels, and Democrats beginning to lag behind.

Why these races matter:

• Both races are seen as a barometer for how the country responds to the coming wave of elections under Donald Trump-era politics.

• Democratic turnout is essential in both races and must overcome Republican energy to pull through.

• A few thousand votes will make the difference in either of these races to tip the scales.

If you have an hour between now and Election Day, consider hopping on the phone to make get-out-the-vote calls and make sure every last Democrat has a plan to vote!

⏰ Trump is back… on 60 minutes?

Yes, really. His first sit-down with the production since the network quietly settled for $16 million after last year’s Kamala Harris defamation interview.

This is exactly how they want it to go: Trump smiling smugly, Norah O’Donnell nodding along, and a national platform to rewrite the past and pretend everything’s fine.

It’s not. While Trump rebrands for prime time, families are struggling to buy groceries. U.S. citizens are being arrested by ICE. Democracy is hanging by a thread.

We don’t get to sit back and watch. We have to organize like hell.

Do something that makes tomorrow less terrifying.

In fight,

David Austin

Executive Director, Forward Blue

🙄 Democratic déjà vu

ICYMI: A group of Democratic elitists launched Project 2029 to turn the ship around, and Jon Stewart tore them a new one. He hits the nail on the head... this is a consultant’s fast pass to pad their salary until the next big race, and hold on tight to the strategies that delivered massive losses for us in 2024. Listen to Jon’s 3-minute breakdown here:

🗳️ Presidential hopefuls

The 2028 race has already started, whether we want to accept it or not… Several contenders have been seen across the country – from South Carolina to Iowa – holding events and townhalls to test their messages and raise name ID.

Here’s the concerning thing about the advice they’re receiving: former DNC chair Jamie Harrison is saying Democrats need to be more aware of their ‘nonverbal’ communication to break through, as voters are craving a fighter and a candidate who stands up to Trump. In reality, the data shows voters more than ever crave and respond the most to candidates with actual messaging on policy and themes with real-world impact in their daily lives.

This is what real “fighters” should do for us:

1. Lead with a signature, kitchen‑table proposal. They lean into something voters can repeat to their neighbor in one sentence. “Day‑one executive order to cap insulin at $35.” (Thanks Joe!)

2. Hammer a unifying theme that stitches it together: dignity in work, freedom from hate, an economy that taxes billionaires, not working families.

3. Show receipts. Name the bill you wrote, the budget you balanced, the strike line you walked. Authenticity is measurable. (Jeff Jackson does this excellently)

4. Use every stage to teach and listen. Campaigns that educate voters win loyalty that glossy ads can’t buy. And when you’re in front of those crowds, you have the opportunity for a conversation that can’t happen anywhere else.

That’s how you punch through MAGA noise: by proving you’ll change people’s day‑to‑day lives, not by perfecting your handshake grip.

With all due respect to the former chair, it’s time he enjoys his retirement and lets the next generation of campaigns run on policy, proof, and unapologetic Democratic values. Jamie’s “watch-your-handshake” masterclass gets a hearty 💩💩💩💩 / 5 on the Shitty‑Takes‑O‑Meter.

Remember this: Democrats won’t beat Trump by curating vibes… we’ll beat him by fixing what’s broken and daring voters to hold us accountable.

🏜️ Arizona keeps fighting

Unlike some out-of-touch journalists, I was glad to see Adelita Grijalva’s victory last week in AZ-7’s special election! It’s a sign that progressive values are prevailing. And even in a competitive primary with corrupt values, we can elect Democrats with values that truly represent the people.

While Grijalva’s district is a safe win for us, we can’t forget about Arizona. Republicans in the state are actively introducing new anti-choice legislation to roll back protections passed last year. If you can, consider joining the Arizona Democrats to register more voters from home!

💸 The king says: pay up!

The Department of Education (which still exists… for now!) confirmed it will reject nearly a third of backlog applications from Biden’s low‑payment SAVE Plan as Trump‑friendly courts froze it in June. This will lead to almost half a million Americans scrambling with a higher-than-expected bill on their plate. And while this is devastating news for many, some are hoping for a Hail Mary from Pam Bondi’s desk:

Until next time, keep the pressure on, keep the receipts handy, and never let the elite convince you that “vibes” count as a plan. We’ll be back soon with more fire—and more ways to win.

In fight,

David Austin

Executive Director, Forward Blue

We launched Forward Blue to change that.

This isn’t going to be your typical newsletter. We’re not here to fundraise or play nice with the people who keep fumbling our future. We’re here to build something better — and that starts by being honest about what went wrong, who’s responsible, and what we’re going to do about it.

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We’ll break down what actually happened in 2024, beyond the talking points.

We’ll expose the bloat, the egos, the missed opportunities, and the data malpractice.

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We’ll show you how Gen Z can push the party to stop losing — and start fighting like the future depends on it.

Because it does.

Some of these posts will be hard to read. Some will piss people off. But all of them will tell the truth — and if you’re still reading this, I think you’re ready for it.

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