We’re in the final days before the most important midterm election in our history. There’s no time for fluff right now, so here's what we’re up against in the final days:
The Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47, so we need to pick up four seats. If it ends up 50-50, JD Vance breaks the tie, and that doesn’t help us. The forecasts have been moving our way all month. Nate Silver’s model now gives Democrats a 75 percent chance of winning the Senate, and Decision Desk HQ had us at 56 percent with a projected 51 seats as of last weekend.
North Carolina is our best pickup. Roy Cooper has led in poll after poll, and Republicans have pulled their money out of the state. Ohio, Alaska and Texas are all close to even. Sherrod Brown and Mary Peltola are narrowly ahead, and in Texas, the latest ReconMR poll puts James Talarico up 49 to 43 over Ken Paxton, with independents breaking for him by 40 points. We also have to hold Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, which means Jon Ossoff and the rest of our incumbents need every vote, too.
None of this is locked in. Cook’s analysts put our likely Senate gains anywhere from two to six seats, which makes the chamber close to a coin flip. And the polls missed Republican support in several of these same states two years ago. A good forecast has never won a Senate seat on its own.
The House
We need just three seats to take back the House. Cook’s top House analyst expects us to gain 10 to 20. Silver’s model gives us a 94 percent chance, with Democrats up nearly 10 points on the generic ballot and Trump’s approval deep underwater. That’s a strong position, and a bigger margin makes it much harder for anyone to wave away.
Why turnout decides it
Every number above is a projection. They only become real when people vote, and those votes get counted. The regime is hoping we get comfortable. They want Black, Brown and new Americans, women, disabled voters and young people to decide it isn’t worth the trouble.
So we show up. Voting decides what groceries cost, who gets a say over our bodies, and who runs the places we live. People across every race, region, and party are coming together to protect our vote and make sure the people's will wins out.
Make it too big to rig. Vote.
🙏 Before you click away, we have three ways you can take action TODAY to help us win on Election Day: 🙏
1. Consider chipping in anything – even $5 – to help us Get Out the Vote in these final 11 days. It’ll go directly to the final push to get voters to the polls. We’re putting everything into turnout over these final days in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Alaska, Georgia and everywhere else this majority will be decided. If you’re able, please chip in a GOTV gift today and help us reach every voter we can before November 3.
2. Verify your polling or mail-in ballot drop box location here.
3. Remind three friends to vote right now. Swipe out of this and open your texts to make sure they have a PLAN to make their voice heard.