It’s rare to hear such positive news from the Lone Star State, but a new poll from Texas offers real hope. Gina Hinojosa now leads Greg Abbott by 4 points, 49-45%, a big shift from July, when she trailed by 1 point. James Talarico’s lead over Ken Paxton has also increased to 6 points, 49-43%, up from 47-43% in July. In Texas, a state long dominated by Republicans, two Democrats are currently leading in the final stretch of their campaigns.
What Changed?
Independent voters are driving this shift in striking numbers. Independents now support Hinojosa by 38 points (65-27%), up from 13 points in July. They also favor Talarico by 40 points (64-24%), up from 23 points in July. Abbott’s favorability has turned negative, with 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable. Paxton is also struggling, with 38% favorable and 55% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Hinojosa’s favorability has risen to 48-27%, and Talarico’s to 50-39%, with fewer undecided voters than before.
Texans are expressing clear opinions on character. Majorities view Hinojosa as honest and authentic, while most do not see Abbott the same way. Voters trust Hinojosa more on issues like affordability and water, which directly impact their daily lives. Paxton’s support is faltering, with nearly all Democrats backing Talarico, but only about 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton, indicating a significant defection rate for a statewide GOP nominee in Texas.
The Catch
Here’s the crucial part: most Texas voters still believe Abbott and Paxton will win. This gap between “who I’m voting for” and “who I think will actually win” is where campaigns can falter. It highlights the importance of turnout, where a four-point lead and a six-point lead are significant but not secure. These leads must be solidified through grassroots efforts in the final weeks.
We’re All In on Texas
This is not the time to overlook a race we were once told to ignore. Talarico is leading. Hinojosa is leading. Independents are increasingly supporting both. The outcome depends on voter turnout before Election Day, not just favorable polls in September.