Graham Platner is surging in Maine

Most public polls of the U.S. Senate race in Maine have sampled somewhere between 400 and 800 voters — and if you look at the crosstabs, those samples skew toward voters over 60. That means the data driving much of the conventional wisdom about this race is based on a narrow, older slice of the electorate. We wanted to deliver a clearer picture. We completed a survey of 1,598 likely Democratic voters in Maine, one of the largest surveys on this race so far. Nearly 60% of our respondents are under 60, and about a quarter are between 30 and 44.

Key Insights

Graham Platner holds a 34.9 point lead ahead of Janet Mills in a primary matchup. Mills’ strongest support comes from voters 60+, while Platner has the majority of 18-59-year-olds.

Graham also holds an advantage in general-election matchups, with a 12.1-point margin over Mills.

From the Voters

Giving voters the ability to provide free-response text helps us better understand the electorate’s thinking, rather than relying only on binary questions. Here are key responses from roughly 500 voters who completed the optional follow-up questions.

Q: What is the single most important issue that will determine your vote in the 2026 Senate election?

Opinions were very clear on three themes: rejecting foreign influences like AIPAC, growing the economy, and rejecting Chuck Schumer’s handpicked candidate for Senate.

“I will not vote for ANYONE who accepts money from AIPAC or the Israel lobby.”

“The widening of classes due to extreme corruption.”

“The Democratic Party needs to read the room or move out of the way.”

Q: In a few words, how would you describe Susan Collins’ job performance as your senator?

The majority of voters, including Republicans, see Collins as a poor legislator, and few voters could cite specific examples of positive performance.

“I would vote for a wet rag before I voted for Susan Collins again.”

“Wishy washy spineless — only votes against Trump when her vote doesn’t matter.”

“She feigns concern and votes the party line.”

Q: What, if anything, have you heard about Janet Mills?

The majority of responses, including from those who support her, stress the need to move on from office at an old age.

“She is youthful and competent despite her age, intelligent, caring... she needs to resign/be defeated in order for all Mainers to have true representation.”

“Love her. Go out on top. Retire.”

“The ones who will live with the decisions need to be making the decisions.”

Q: What, if anything, have you heard about Graham Platner?

Voters are aware of Platner’s previous actions, but are broadly receptive to his apology, especially alongside his progressive values and relatability.

“When have we had a politician who stood up and took responsibility for a mistake? I support him 100%.”

“He is a Mainer, a veteran, an oyster farmer and now a vocal leader for those of us in Maine with progressive values. Who will stand up against those politically opposed to him without fear.”

“He’s a working guy, a caring man, deserving of forgiveness for youthful mistakes. Reminds me of me, and how my life has progressed.”

Methodology

This survey was conducted by Forward Blue from March 18 through March 22, 2026, among a sample of 1,598 likely Democratic voters in the State of Maine. Respondents were recruited via a web-to-SMS panel targeting medium to high turnout records.

The margin of error for the full sample is ±2.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, calculated using the standard method.

The survey included an attention-check question that instructed respondents to select a specific answer, and invalid responses were removed from the results.

Results are unweighted. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

This poll was sponsored by Forward Blue. As of the time of writing and conducting the poll, Forward Blue has not endorsed any candidate in this race. Additional unweighted crosstabs and a copy of the questionnaire are available upon request for press or academic uses.