This November, elections will be held for 35 Senate seats, but only a handful will decide who controls the upper chamber. The current makeup of the Senate includes 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including 2 independents).
According to conventional wisdom, our clearest path would be to flip North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, and Ohio while making sure we defend Democratic held toss up seats in Georgia and Michigan. However, we’re also monitoring races in Texas and Iowa where strong Democratic candidates have given us a shot at flipping these reliably Republican seats.
Democrats have what is probably their easiest pickup opportunity in the tar heel state, where popular former Governor Roy Cooper is leading Republican Michael Whatley by double digits in most polls. Whatley, the former RNC chair and close confidant to Donald Trump, has never held political office, and his proximity to Trump likely hurts more than it helps in such a competitive state. As of right now, Cooper has outraised Whatley three to one, but the outside money being spent in Whatley’s favor could easily erase that lead. The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund has already announced plans to spend $71 million in North Carolina.
The state of play in Maine has changed drastically in the past month, with Democratic nominee Graham Platner dropping out of the race in July after he was accused of sexual assault. Democrats have now replaced Platner with logger and former Maine state Senate president Troy Jackson. Democrats have sought to oust Susan Collins and flip this seat for years, and this could be their best shot. The state has been reliably trending blue, and Kamala Harris won the state in 2024, but Collins has shown to be a formidable incumbent that we cannot take for granted.
In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola is running to unseat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. Peltola has a history of being able to flip red seats, and since Alaska’s House seat is at-large, she’s had experience winning statewide. A new poll from earlier this month shows Peltola leading Sullivan 51% to his 49%. While this may be a statistical tie, it’s important to remember that Trump won this state by 13 points in 2024, meaning Peltola is winning over a sizable portion of Trump voters, which will be essential to her victory.
Ohio has trended red over the last few election cycles, but former Senator Sherrod Brown is giving Democrats their best chance at flipping the seat. Brown is up against Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill J.D. Vance’s seat after he became Vice President. Brown certainly benefits from strong name ID, support from labor unions, and a massive war chest, and a recent Fox News poll shows Brown leading Husted by eight points. Husted is still a rather unknown figure, which could both help or hurt our chances. Democrats must effectively define Husted as a Trump lackey who wants data centers in working-class communities and is supporting another endless war that is driving costs through the roof.
Along with flipping these four seats, we must defend two Democratic held seats in Georgia and Michigan. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has maintained a lead in polling and a massive cash advantage over his Republican opponent Mike Collins. Georgia is the only state where Trump won with a Democratic Senator up for reelection, so Republicans are setting their sights on the Peach State as one of their prime pickup opportunities. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed just prevailed in the Democratic primary despite being heavily outspent by establishment pick Haley Stevens. El-Sayed’s fiercely progressive message resonated with a coalition of younger and college-educated voters, but if he wants to win the general, he needs to boost his standing among older black voters who voted overwhelmingly for Haley Stevens in the primary.
Finally, we have our wildcards, Texas and Iowa. These two states have been reliably Republican for over a decade, but with Trump’s approval at an all-time low, strong Democratic candidates have given us a chance to flip them. In Texas, James Talarico, a former teacher, pastor, and state representative, is facing off against MAGA darling Ken Paxton in what has become a closely watched race. Talarico will need to boost turnout among younger voters and win over Hispanic voters who have trended to the right over the past few election cycles.
Talarico recently unveiled his “New American Dream” plan, including a minimum wage increase and taxing the 1% to deliver wins to working-class families. You can hear more about his vision here:
In Iowa, a state widely affected by Trump’s tariffs and the war in Iran, which have raised fertilizer and fuel prices, polling shows Josh Turek neck and neck with Republican Ashley Hinson.
Now here’s where you come in. If you have time between now and Election Day, consider hopping on the phone to make get-out-the-vote calls and make sure every last Democrat has a plan to vote. Every vote matters, and turnout is what will determine every one of these races, so it’s time to organize like hell to get the job done.