After Tuesday, we'll know who runs the Senate, and in Texas and Michigan the Republican is behind or clinging to a coin flip. Plus, a surprise from Kansas at the end.
Texas: a record-breaking early vote!
More than 7.7 million Texans voted early, a new midterm record that beats even the 2018 Beto year.
Most polls have James Talarico ahead. CNN has him up 49 to 43. Texas Southern has him up 49 to 47. Decision Desk HQ gives him a 59% chance.
Outside groups have spent about $300 million for Paxton, nearly four times what’s gone to Talarico. Elon Musk alone sent $158 million toward it. And Paxton is still tied or trailing.
Michigan: Mike Rogers gets a Sunday surprise.
Rogers is trailing, so this morning he found some help: Rep. Haley Stevens, the Democrat who lost the primary to Abdul El-Sayed in August, endorsed him.
Stevens endorsed El-Sayed after the primary and said she wanted Democrats to win this seat. Then, her fiancé announced he’s voting for Rogers! This morning she skipped a planned unity event, went to church with Rogers instead, and endorsed him on video. Her explanation at a press conference: “I’m sorry people are upset.”
The Democratic Party, and even its most moderate members, isn’t following her. Top Democrats quickly reaffirmed their support for El-Sayed.
But let’s be clear: Rogers and his allies have outspent El-Sayed nearly 2-to-1 in a $400 million race. It isn’t working. Independents are breaking for El-Sayed by 14 points, and he’s even ahead in Trump-friendly northern Michigan.
Bonus wildcard: KANSAS?!
Kansas hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. Pastor Adam Hamilton is leading Republican Roger Marshall 49 to 45 in both Emerson and CNN, and 52 to 43 in the Washington Post poll. Trump had to fly to Salina to rally for Marshall.
Forecasters still call it a toss-up, and Marshall beat his polls by a wide margin in 2020. So Kansans need to turn out like it’s 1932!
What’s at stake
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Flip Texas, hold Michigan, take back Kansas, and the MAGA majority is gone. No more rubber stamp for an agenda that’s driven up the cost of groceries, gas and health care.
Two days. LFG!
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