Four days before early voting opens, Democrats are taking the lead in Texas! James Talarico leads Ken Paxton in poll after poll:
University of Texas/Texas Politics Project: Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%
ReconMR/Siena: Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%
Marist: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%
Fox News: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%
The governor’s race is closer, and that is news in itself! For the first time in Greg Abbott’s career, RealClearPolitics rates his race a toss-up. Gina Hinojosa leads 49-48 in the UT poll and 48-47 in YouGov’s. Abbott is three terms in, and he’s fighting for every point.
Texas hasn’t sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. Right now, that streak is in real danger.
What’s Holding
Paxton’s baggage. His favorability sits at 40% favorable, 55% unfavorable. Fox News has him 18 points underwater, while Talarico is 8 points above water.
Abbott’s record. His job approval is underwater too, 48-51% in ReconMR’s poll.
Locked-in voters. In the UT poll, 91% of Talarico supporters say they’re unlikely to change their minds. For Paxton, the figure is 84%.
The kitchen table. Seven in ten likely voters say cost of living matters to their Senate vote. Among Texans who say they’re falling behind, Talarico leads by 32 points.
The good news also extends down the ballot. For the first time, Texas Democrats are polling slightly ahead in several down-ballot statewide races.
The Catch
Republicans see the same numbers we do, and they’re spending to change them.
A pro-Paxton super PAC spent $131 million in just 17 days last month. Donald Trump flew to San Antonio last week to rally for him. The margins have tightened. Talarico’s lead slipped from 6 points to 4 in one poll, and from 6 to 2 in another.
There’s also a belief gap. More Texans say they’re voting for Talarico than for Paxton. Yet a plurality now expect Paxton to win anyway. On the governor’s race, 62% expect Abbott to win, even though the race is tied.
Hinojosa’s strongest supporters are younger and Hispanic voters. Those are the voters most likely to skip a midterm.
That is the whole race in one fact. Texans are ready to vote for change. Many of them aren’t yet convinced their vote will matter. Pundits have made it clear: the race comes down to “turnout, turnout, turnout.”
We’re All In on Texas
Early voting runs October 19 through October 30. Election Day is November 3.
Talarico is leading. Hinojosa is in a dead heat. Independents are with us. Paxton and his allies are throwing everything they have at closing the gap.
The next three weeks decide whether Texas’s best shot in a generation becomes a win, and we’re all in on making sure it does!
I believe that in 1800s the then Democrats had fundamentally the same policies as today’s Republicans. They have (in the aggregate) never changed. So I would say they Texas has never elected a Democratic (as defined today) Senator. If they do this year it will be historic event.